IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings: Three Questions
The IMF/World Bank spring meetings start today, with a broad agenda and amidst significant global uncertainty. A good discussion of the agenda is here and of the Fund’s view is here. Here are three...
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Russian Contagion, Geopolitical Risk, and Markets
Yesterday, I published my Global Economics Monthly. I argue that further economic sanctions against Russia would have significant global economic effects because of the Russia’s connectedness to energy...
View ArticleUkraine: Now Comes the Hard Part
Petro Poroshenko’s convincing first-round victory in yesterday’s Ukrainian presidential elections, with 54 percent of the vote, is an important step toward political stability. But hard work lies...
View ArticleBRICS and Mortals
Leaders of the BRICS–Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa–meet in Rio today to swap World Cup stories and launch a long-discussed “BRICS Bank.” The bank creates two funds–a development...
View ArticleChina Chooses Growth Over Reform
The Wall Street Journal piece on rapid credit growth in China yesterday describes the sharp tradeoff for the Chinese government: achieving growth targets in the near term comes at the expense of reform...
View ArticleThe Geopolitical Paradox: Dangerous World, Resilient Markets
Should we be worried by how well global markets are performing despite rising geopolitical volatility? I think so. In my September monthly, I look at the main arguments explaining the disconnect, and...
View ArticleThe Meaning of Ukraine’s IMF Deal
While today’s headlines focus on the truce agreement between Ukraine and Russia, a significant economic milestone was achieved yesterday with the IMF’s announcement that its staff has reached agreement...
View ArticleUkraine’s IMF Program Sets Stage for Debt Restructuring
The IMF yesterday approved a four-year, $17.5 billion arrangement for Ukraine, their contribution to a $40 billion financing gap that they have identified over that period. A further $15 billion is to...
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Are We Ready for the Next Emerging Market Crisis?
This summer’s market turmoil was a serious jolt to emerging markets, particularly commodity exporters and those countries with strong trade and financial ties to China. Fortunately, there are good...
View ArticleG20: Preparing for the Next Crisis
The leaders of Group of Twenty (G20) meet this weekend in Antalya, Turkey. The agenda is long, the ambitions are modest, and it is easy to be cynical that the group has outlived its usefulness. Still,...
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European Central Bank Rate Move, a Turning Point for Europe
At the governing council’s meeting today, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will cut benchmark deposit rate to -0.3 percent, extend its quantitative easing (QE) program to at least...
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Macri-economics in Argentina
While markets have focused attention on China as the primary source of market risk in 2016, Latin America has provided the more significant headlines in recent weeks. Political turmoil in Brazil has...
View ArticleVenezuela’s Descent Into Crisis
In my May monthly, I make the case that the crisis in Venezuela has intensified to the point where a chaotic default is a question of when, not if. Economic activity is falling sharply and the seeds of...
View ArticleBrexit’s Threat to Global Growth
Thursday’s Brexit vote wasn’t a “Lehman moment”, as some have feared. Instead, it was a growth moment. And that may be the greater threat. If policymakers respond effectively, the benefits could be...
View ArticleBrexit, Emerging Markets, and Venezuela in the News
Three things to think about today. If you haven’t already done so, subscribe now to my colleague Brad Setser’s blog, which provides excellent commentary on global macro issues. His most recent piece...
View ArticleTurkey’s Shaky Economy: a Local or Global Concern?
Turkey’s failed coup looks set to deliver a substantial blow to Turkey’s already wobbly economy. It could also renew concerns, post Brexit, about global emerging markets more broadly. Late Friday,...
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